Wilder-Fury II Primer: Who Has The Edge?

The heavyweight division is as hot as it has been in years thanks to the presence of Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury. The pair waged a phenomenal battle in 2018 and are set for a rematch that’s being billed as the biggest heavyweight fight since Tyson-Lewis in 2002. Fury himself recently invoked Ali-Frazier when previewing the fight, only adding to the hype. So what can bettors expect when these fighters step into the ring on Saturday night at the MGM in Las Vegas?

Tale of the Tape
At 31 years old and a towering 6-foot-9, Fury is younger, taller and has a longer reach (85 inches) than Wilder, who’s 34 years old, stands 6-foot-7 and boasts an 83-inch reach. Fury officially had over 40 pounds on Wilder after Friday’s weigh-in, checking in at 273 pounds to Wilder’s 231. Put it all together and it’s clear Fury has a marked physical advantage over Wilder. 

Both fighters enter the ring undefeated. Wilder has had 43 professional fights and won all but one – the first bout vs. Fury, which resulted in a controversial draw. Of his 42 victories, 41 have been by knockout. Fury has 29 wins and 20 knockouts from his 30 fights, with his only blemish being the split draw against Wilder. 

Wilder has fought twice since his last bout with Fury, knocking out Dominic Breazeale (20-1) last May before knocking out Luis Ortiz (31-1) in November. Fury has also fought twice, recording a TKO win over Tom Schwarz (24-0) in June before earning a unanimous decision against Otto Wallin (20-0) in September. 

Wilder and Fury met in December of 2018 in a classic that ended in a highly controversial split draw. Wilder went in as the WBC champ and Fury the challenger, but most believed Fury did enough to take the belt. Fury landed 26% of his punches compared to 17% from Wilder. The equalizing factor was Wilder knocked Fury down twice – first in Round 9 and then again in Round 12. The latter knockdown initially appeared to finish Fury, but he was able to beat the count and finish the fight.

In what is essentially a pickem title bout — the Fight Result market has Wilder at -118 and Fury at +100 — Fury’s significant size advantage and youth edge should ultimately tip the balance in his favor. Fury is a tactician and knows Wilder will be looking to end the bout with one blow, so look for him to use the combination of his wits and size to hold Wilder at bay and earn a hard-fought decision. Given that the fight figures to go the distance, bettors who like Fury can unlock some extra value by taking him to win by decision at +135.

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