Super Bowl LIV Market Report

The countdown to Super Bowl LIV between the Chiefs and 49ers has officially begun, and if the betting market were a crystal ball, the biggest game of the season is shaping up as not only a shootout, but a nail-biter as well. As of Friday afternoon, the Chiefs were listed as slight 1.5-point favorites, with the total sitting at 54. Neither team has been involved in a game with a shorter spread or higher total since early October, when the season was still in its infant stages.

Both the side and total have seen some notable adjustments since going up during the NFC Championship Game after San Francisco had established a big lead over Green Bay. The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites midway through that contest, with the total initially posted at 52.5. By Sunday night, though, Niners money had sent the line down to 1, while over money had fueled a move up to 54 on the total.

Chiefs -1 marked a resistance point for KC action, which began to come in early Monday. That included some sharp interest, resulting in the number ticking back up to 1.5, which is where it’s remained throughout the week. The total, which bounced between 54 and 53.5 in the early part of the week, settled at 54 by Tuesday night.  While both teams have impressed over the past month, the Chiefs will enter Super Bowl LIV on a more sustained hot streak, having gone a perfect 8-0 straight up and 7-0-1 ATS since the beginning of December. The Niners, meanwhile, have won four straight — including three consecutive covers — after dropping two of three to begin December.  

What makes the Super Bowl unlike any other sporting event is the sheer volume of money that enters the market. As opposed to a typical weekend when any substantial sharp positions will almost always move the market, the Super Bowl can become an immovable object — particularly in the days and hours leading up to kickoff, when the majority of recreational bettors and whales enter the fray. In other words, this is the one game where the public truly gets to have its say. With that in mind, bettors interested in getting down on the over should consider scooping up 53.5 when it’s available, as the number only figures to rise in the days and hours leading up to kickoff thanks to an influx of public money.  

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