Championship Weekend Market Report

NFL Championship Sunday kicks off with the AFC title game between the Titans and Chiefs in Kansas City. This is a rematch of a Week 12 game that Tennessee won outright, 35-32, as 5.5-point home underdogs. Similar to the Titans’ playoff wins over the Patriots and Ravens, Derrick Henry was the catalyst in that game, rushing 23 times for 188 yards and two touchdowns. That victory marked the beginning of a two-month run that has seen Tennessee go 7-2 both straight up and ATS, including a perfect 5-0 on the road.

The Chiefs have been in the midst of an even more dominant run since that game — which doubled as Patrick Mahomes’ return from a knee injury — ripping off a seven-game win streak in which they’ve gone 6-0-1 ATS, capped by last week’s 51-31 win over the Texans after trailing 24-0. Kansas City opened as 9-point favorites in the AFC Championship Game, a number that quickly generated sharp interest on the Tennessee side. By early Monday, the line was down to 8 before moving to 7.5 by Monday night. It held steady there until a subsequent adjustment to 7 by Thursday. The total has also seen an adjustment, with an opener of 51.5 getting bet up as high as 53.

The NFC Championship Game pits the Packers and 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday night. Similar to Titans-Chiefs, this is also a rematch of a regular-season game, a 37-8 Niners rout on Sunday Night Football in Week 12. The San Francisco pass rush battered Aaron Rodgers in that game, but the Packers have done a good job of shoring up their pass protection since then, which has helped spur a six-game win streak in which they’ve gone 4-2 ATS. The 49ers, meanwhile, have covered their past two games after an uneven stretch from mid-November through mid-December that saw them lose three times outright while covering just three of seven matchups.

The Niners opened as 7-point favorites for the NFC title game, a sizable adjustment from the Week 12 line, which closed 3. The market didn’t view it as enough of an adjustment, though, as the number moved up to 7.5 by Monday night and remained there as of Thursday afternoon. The total opened 47.5, but that number didn’t last long, with under money driving a move straight through 46 to 45 by Monday afternoon, which is where it remained on Thursday.

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