Wild Card Weekend Market Report

Wild Card Weekend kicks off with the Texans hosting the Bills. Houston was one of the worst home teams in the league this season relative to market expectations, going just 2-6 ATS while losing three games outright. The Bills, conversely, were road warriors, going 6-2 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS. The Texans opened as 3-point favorites, an indicator the market views this matchup as essentially a pickem on a neutral field. The number has since seen an adjustment to 2.5, with sharp money taking a position on Buffalo +3. The total has also been on the move, with over money fueling an adjustment up to 44 from 42.5.

• The nightcap on Saturday features the Titans and Patriots meeting in Foxboro. New England finds itself playing on Wild Card Weekend for the first time since 2009 thanks to a shocking home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17. The Pats are 20-3 straight up in home playoff games in the Brady/Belichick era, and have covered five of their last six. The Titans, meanwhile, actually performed better on the road this season, going 5-3 both straight up and ATS. The line for this game opened Patriots -5.5, and after some early Titans interest pushed it as low as 4.5, it has since settled at 5. The total has mainly held steady at 44.

• The early window Sunday pits the Vikings and Saints in a rematch of “The Minneapolis Miracle” from two years ago, with the difference being this game is in New Orleans. It’s also the most lopsided matchup according to the market, as the Saints opened as 6-point favorites before getting bet up to 7 by Monday, and 8 by Tuesday morning. That marked a minor resistance point, with some Vikings +8 money temporarily sending the number back to 7.5. But further Saints action pushed it back to 8, which is where it’s settled. The total has seen a significant adjustment as well, with an opener of 47 moving up to 49.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

• The weekend is capped by a Seahawks-Eagles matchup in Philadelphia. These two teams met in Week 12 at Lincoln Financial Field, with Seattle stifling a banged-up Philly squad in a 17-9 win as short road favorites. While the Eagles are still dealing with myriad injuries, they nonetheless found a way to win their final four games to capture the NFC East crown. The Seahawks, who went just 1-3 straight up and 0-3-1 ATS down the stretch, opened as 1-point favorites. Early money came in on Seattle to push the line to 2, at which point some Eagles money began to enter the market, which ticked the number back down to 1.5. The total opened 46 and has seen minimal action, an indicator the number is about right.

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