NFL Market Report: Week 16

Week 16 kicks off with a special Saturday tripleheader, beginning with an interconference affair between the Texans and Bucs in Tampa Bay. The Bucs have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past month, winning four straight while going 3-0-1 ATS. But they’re increasingly banged up, with star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both injured. That contributed to an opener of Houston -1.5 quickly moving up to 3, which is where it settled. The total has seen a slight adjustment down to 49.5 from 50.5.

• The Bills visit the Patriots in a key AFC East battle in the middle game, with New England opening as 6.5-point favorites. That’s a sizable adjustment from their Week 4 game in Buffalo, where the Pats closed as 7-point favorites in an eventual 16-10 win. That’s a direct result of the Bills having absolutely crushed market expectations on the road this season, amassing a 6-0-1 ATS record. The line on this game has bounced back and forth between 6.5 and 6, while sharp action on the under has pushed the total down to 36.5 from 38.

• The Saturday trifecta concludes with a Rams-49ers showdown in Santa Clara. These NFC West rivals met in Week 6, with the Niners stifling the Rams offense in a 20-7 win as 3-point dogs. San Francisco, which opened as 6.5-point favorites for Round II, is dealing with a handful of injuries on the defensive side, which has led to some professional interest on the Rams.

• The early slate on Sunday is highlighted by an interconference matchup between the Saints and Titans in Tennessee. The Saints, who are 5-1 ATS on the road this season, were hung as 3-point favorites against a Titans team that saw its run of four straight wins and covers snapped by the Texans in last week’s 24-21 loss. After a bit of Tennessee action on Tuesday briefly pushed the number down to 2.5, it returned to 3 midweek. That marked another resistance point, though, and it was back to 2.5 as of Thursday morning.

• The de facto NFC East title game between the Cowboys and Eagles takes center stage in the late window. Dallas opened as 2.5-point road favorites and saw early action, resulting in an adjustment to 3 by Tuesday night. Sharp money on the Eagles +3 entered the market at that point, sending the number back to 2.5. Then news came out that Dak Prescott was limited in Wednesday’s practice due to a shoulder injury, giving way to another correction to 1.5, which is where the line sat on Thursday. The total has primarily held steady at 46.5.

• The week wraps with the final Monday Night Football game of the year as the Packers visit the Vikings looking to win in Minnesota for the first time since 2015 and formally wrap up the NFC North. The market would indicate that’s unlikely to happen, as an opener of Vikings -4 has been steadily on the rise, first to 4.5 by Monday night, then to 5 by Wednesday and as high as 5.5 on Thursday.

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