NFL Market Report: Week 12

The Week 12 slate begins with a battle for AFC South supremacy between the Colts and Texans in Houston. Neither team has rewarded bettors of late, with each having covered just one of their last four games. The Texans opened as 3.5-point home favorites and quickly got bet up to 4, but that proved to be the sharp resistance point. The number has since bounced back and forth between 3.5 and 4, with professional money grabbing Indy +4 each time it’s been available. The total, which initially moved down to 45 off an opener of 46, had resettled at 46 by Thursday.

• The early window on Sunday is highlighted by a Seahawks-Eagles showdown at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia went up as 2-point favorites, but early Seattle money pushed the number down to 1.5 by Monday night. The line returned to 2 by Tuesday morning but didn’t last long, as the market clearly views the Seahawks as the superior team on a neutral field. The total, which opened 48, hasn’t budged all week.

• The Jets host the Raiders in a matchup of two teams that have been trending up of late. Oakland is 3-1 straight up and ATS over its last four games, while the Jets have won and covered two straight. The Raiders opened as 3-point favorites and the line held steady throughout the early part of the week before some sharp action on the Jets ticked it down to 2.5 on Tuesday night, but it was back to 3 by Thursday morning.

• All eyes will be on the Cowboys-Patriots clash in the late-afternoon window at Gillette Stadium. Both teams have performed well relative to market expectations this season, with Dallas 6-4 ATS — including 4-1 on the road — and New England 7-3 ATS. The Pats opened as 6.5-point favorites, and while the initial move was down to 6, the number moved back to 6.5 midweek and hadn’t seen any further adjustments by Thursday.

• Sunday Night Football features a flexed-in matchup between the Packers and 49ers that saw San Francisco open as 3-point home favorites. The market effectively views these teams as equal on a neutral field with the slightest of edges to the Niners, as the number appeared to be trending toward 3.5 by Thursday morning. The total has seen a notable adjustment, with over money fueling a move from 46.5 to 47.5, crossing through the key number of 47 in the process.

• The week concludes with a big interconference showdown between the Ravens and Rams on Monday night in Southern California. Baltimore has consistently cashed tickets on the road this season — putting together a 3-1-1 ATS record — one of the reasons this game opened Ravens -3. Sharp money has come in on the Rams as home dogs, an indicator that the market may be slightly overvaluing Baltimore.

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