NFL Thanksgiving Market Report

The Week 13 NFL slate begins with a full platter of Thanksgiving football, including two games with playoff implications.

• The appetizer is an NFC North battle between the Bears and Lions in the Motor City. No team has seen a more drastic market regression this season than the Bears, who have covered just one game since the end of September and are tied for a league-worst 3-8 ATS overall. Chicago opened as short 1-point favorites in Detroit, but by late Monday afternoon news broke that Lions quarterback Jeff Driskel was dealing with a hamstring injury. That gave way to a steam move up to Chicago -3 by Tuesday morning, and a further adjustment to 3.5 by Wednesday. The total, which opened 39, has ticked down to 38.

• The main course features an interconference showdown between potential playoff teams, with the Cowboys hosting the Bills. Despite the Bills’ status as one of the best performing teams relative to market expectations this season (7-3-1 ATS, including 3-0-1 this month), they continue to catch inflated numbers. That’s once again the case in this game, as Dallas opened as 7-point favorites before some sharp money on Buffalo pushed the number down to 6.5, which is where it remained Wednesday. The total has seen a far more drastic adjustment, with over money fueling a move to as high as 47 from an opener of 44.5, rolling straight through the key number of 45 in the process.

• The Turkey Day tripleheader is capped by an NFC South showdown between the Saints and Falcons in Atlanta. It was less than three weeks ago that the Falcons pulled the upset of the year by routing the Saints, 26-9, as 14-point underdogs. The market effectively viewed that result as an aberration, as this game opened with the Saints as 7-point road favorites — which isn’t much different than -14 at home when factoring in the change of venue. The line has since bounced between 7 and 6.5, with New Orleans money coming in each time it’s dipped to 6.5. The under has also generated interest, with an opener of 50 getting bet down to 48.5.

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