Divisional Weekend Market Report

Divisional Weekend begins with the Vikings meeting the top-seeded 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Minnesota — which sprung the biggest upset of Wild Card Weekend, beating the Saints as 7.5-point underdogs — has covered three of its last four road games and is on a 4-1 ATS run overall. The 49ers, meanwhile, began the season a perfect 6-0 against the number at home before failing to cover their final two games. The Niners opened as 6.5-point favorites in this matchup, but by Monday night the line had moved onto the key number of 7 on the strength of early San Francisco action. That gave way to a bit of professional interest on Minnesota +7, but the number has nonetheless held firm. Sharp money has also hit the under, with the total seeing an adjustment down to 44 after touching as high as 45.5.

• Saturday’s primetime game features the Super Bowl-favorite Ravens hosting the Titans in a battle of the Nos. 1 and 6 seeds in the AFC. Tennessee has crushed market expectations since Ryan Tannehill was handed the starting-quarterback job, going 8-3 both straight up and ATS. Included in that run are four straight wins and covers on the road, capped by last week’s upset of the Patriots as 5-point dogs. This game opened Ravens -10, which almost immediately generated sharp action on the Titans, dropping the number first to 9.5 and then 9. It’s since bounced between 9 and 9.5 throughout the week. The total, which opened 48, saw early money come in on the under, giving way to a move to 47 by Monday afternoon, which is where it’s settled.

• Sunday’s action kicks off with a Texans-Chiefs showdown in Kansas City. These teams met at Arrowhead in Week 6, with Houston rallying from a 14-point deficit in a 31-24 win as 3.5-point underdogs. The market is putting no stock in that result, as the line for the rematch opened Chiefs -7.5 and was steamed up as high as 10 by Monday before a bit of buyback on Houston ticked it back down to 9.5. That appears to be the right number, as it hadn’t budged by Thursday afternoon. Kansas City was a wrecking ball over the latter portion of the season, winning its final six games while going 5-0-1 ATS. The Texans, conversely, haven’t won more than two straight games all year and haven’t covered back-to-back games since mid-October. The total for this game is up to 51 after opening 49, with professional money on the over driving the move.

• The weekend wraps with an intriguing matchup between the Seahawks and Packers at Lambeau Field. This game projects to be the tightest of the four, with Green Bay opening as 4-point favorites, an indicator the market views the Packers as the superior team on a neutral field, but not by much. The number held steady through the middle part of the week, which is rare for a game of this magnitude. But it finally saw some movement by Thursday, with Green Bay action ticking it up to 4.5. Both of these teams have exceled in one-score games this season, with Seattle 11-2 and Green Bay 8-1. It’s also a strength-on-strength matchup, as the Seahawks are 8-1 straight up and 6-2-1 ATS on the road, while the Packers are 7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS at home. The total sat at 47 on Thursday afternoon, up from an opener of 46.

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