5 NFL Player Props Hit By Sharp Money

The 2020 NFL offseason has been highlighted by one of the most fireworks-filled free-agency periods in recent memory, and it couldn’t have come at a better time, providing both professional and recreational bettors with different ways to put money down on a bunch of star players – many of whom are set to don new uniforms next season. Here are five NFL player props that have seen sharp movement.

Player: Todd Gurley (Falcons)
Market: O/U 1150.5 Rushing Yards; O/U 12.5 Rushing TDs
Sharp side: Under

Analysis: It didn’t take long for Gurley to find a new home after being released by the Rams on March 19, with the Falcons signing the star running back the following day. It also didn’t take long for professional bettors to pounce on some of Gurley’s opening prop markets. Sharp steam quickly pushed his rushing-yards market down by a full 100 yards from 1150.5 to 1050.5, and further under money at that price point shifted the juice to -155 on the under. Gurley’s touchdown market saw a drastic adjustment as well, dropping to 9.5 from the 12.5 opener. The sixth-year back is coming off a 2019 season in which he rushed for a career-low 857 yards but still amassed 12 rushing TDs.

Player: Tom Brady (Bucs)
Market: O/U 4500.5 Passing Yards; O/U 33.5 Passing TDs
Sharp side: Under

Analysis: Brady’s departure from New England to Tampa Bay flipped the Bucs into a bona fide contender and the NFL’s newest public favorite in the blink of an eye. Pros, however, saw an overreaction in some of Brady’s prop markets, specifically his passing touchdowns. Under money came in hard and fast at the opener of 33.5 — a number Brady has eclipsed just once since 2012 — giving way to a sizable adjustment down to 30.5. His passing-yards market has also generated steady under interest, first moving to 4400.5 before another adjustment to 4300.5 – which is more in line with his average of 4,330 passing yards over the past three years.

Player: James Conner (Steelers)
Market: O/U 1400.5 Total Yards
Sharp side: Over

Analysis: Pros almost always lean under in prop markets because the public typically favors overs (which in turn leads to inflated prices), but that’s not always the case. Conner’s total-yards market is an example of a prominent player prop generating some professional interest on the over. Sharp money pushed the opener of 1400.5 up to 1450.5, an indicator the market is bullish on Conner’s 2020 prospects with Ben Roethlisberger set to return.

Player: Philip Rivers (Colts)
Market: O/U 4650.5 Passing Yards
Sharp side: Under

Analysis: Similar to Brady, professional bettors saw an overreaction to a franchise icon changing uniforms. This time it was Rivers, who signed with the Colts after 16 years with the Chargers.  Sharp accounts hit this prop with under money at multiple price points, driving it down a full 300 yards to 4350.5. That’s opened up a substantial middle that could prove profitable for bettors who got ahead of the market — especially when considering that Rivers’ total passing yards have landed between 4,350 and 4,650 in three of the past four seasons.

Player: Jordan Howard (Dolphins)
Market: O/U 925.5 Rushing Yards
Sharp side: Under

Analysis: Howard’s rushing yards decreased in each of his three seasons with the Bears – from 1,313 to 1,122 to 935 — and injuries limited him to just 10 games last year with the Eagles. Add it up and you have the recipe for another prop that generated a flurry of under money at the initial price point, resulting in an initial adjustment down to 850.5 before a subsequent move to 799.5.

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